Leningradets vs Arsenal Tula Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Leningradets and 1.43 for Arsenal Tula, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Arsenal Tula the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Leningradets home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal Tula away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arsenal Tula to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Leningradets and 1.43 for Arsenal Tula, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Leningradets win36%

Draw25%

Arsenal Tula win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.9%
0–18.6%
1–28.5%
1–08.3%
2–18.2%

Recent form

Leningradets

2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Neftekhimik · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Kostroma · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Luki-Energiya · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Moskva · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 2-3 (L)

Arsenal Tula

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KAMAZ · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC UFA · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Kostroma · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nizhny Novgorod	15	13	1	1	29	40
2	FC Sochi	15	10	2	3	11	32
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	8	4	3	15	28
4	Ural	15	8	4	3	14	28
5	Spartak Kostroma	14	8	3	3	7	27
6	Veles	16	8	3	5	1	27
7	FC UFA	15	5	6	4	3	21
8	Volga Ulyanovsk	16	6	3	7	-1	21
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	4	8	2	4	20
10	Rotor Volgograd	15	5	4	6	5	19
11	Arsenal Tula	15	5	4	6	-10	19
12	Chelyabinsk	15	4	3	8	-7	15
13	Enisey	15	3	5	7	-14	14
14	Leningradets	15	3	5	7	-14	14
15	KAMAZ	15	3	4	8	-8	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	15	4	1	10	-11	13
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	2	4	9	-10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	15	2	4	9	-14	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.