Petrovsky Stadium · Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Leningradets vs Enisey Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Leningradets and 1.25 for Enisey, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Leningradets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.3% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leningradets home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Enisey away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leningradets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Leningradets and 1.25 for Enisey, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.6%
- 1–27.4%
Recent form
Leningradets
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nizhny Novgorod · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tekstilshchik · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Sokol Saratov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ska-khabarovsk · 3-2 (W)
Enisey
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelyabinsk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rotor Volgograd · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Druzhba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Neftekhimik · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 34 |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 26 |
| 3 | Veles | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 26 |
| 4 | Ural | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 5 | Torpedo Moskva | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 24 |
| 6 | Spartak Kostroma | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 24 |
| 7 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Rotor Volgograd | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 9 | FC UFA | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 16 |
| 11 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 15 |
| 13 | Enisey | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | Leningradets | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 13 |
| 15 | FK Neftekhimik | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 | KAMAZ | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | Ska-khabarovsk | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
| 18 | Tekstilshchik | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -13 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.