Leningradets vs KAMAZ Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Leningradets and 0.95 for KAMAZ, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Leningradets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Leningradets win

46.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Leningradets home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
KAMAZ away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leningradets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 28% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Leningradets and 0.95 for KAMAZ, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Leningradets win46%

Draw28%

KAMAZ win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.5%
1–112.9%
0–010.0%
0–19.5%
2–09.1%

Recent form

Leningradets

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nizhny Novgorod · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tekstilshchik · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Sokol Saratov · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ska-khabarovsk · 3-2 (W)

KAMAZ

2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Shinnik Yaroslavl · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Kirov · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ural · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leningradets · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nizhny Novgorod	15	13	1	1	29	40
2	FC Sochi	15	10	2	3	11	32
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	8	4	3	15	28
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	8	3	3	7	27
5	Veles	15	8	3	4	2	27
6	Ural	14	7	4	3	12	25
7	FC UFA	15	5	6	4	3	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	4	8	2	4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	15	5	4	6	5	19
10	Arsenal Tula	15	5	4	6	-10	19
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	5	3	7	-2	18
12	Chelyabinsk	14	4	3	7	-5	15
13	Enisey	15	3	5	7	-14	14
14	KAMAZ	15	3	4	8	-8	13
15	Leningradets	14	3	4	7	-14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	4	0	10	-11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	2	4	9	-10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	15	2	4	9	-14	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Leningradets win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.