Roshchino Arena · Referee Y. Galimov · Analysis updated 22:42 UTC
Leningradets vs Ska-khabarovsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Leningradets and 1.10 for Ska-khabarovsk, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Leningradets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leningradets home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ska-khabarovsk away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leningradets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 29% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Leningradets and 1.10 for Ska-khabarovsk, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–111.6%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–17.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 4.7%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.38 | 68.7% | 71.3% | 1.40 | +2.6 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.17 | 78.6% | 80.9% | 1.24 | +2.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.69 | 35.5% | 36.9% | 2.71 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.89 | 33.1% | 34.4% | 2.91 | +1.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.60 | 59.8% | 60.9% | 1.64 | +1.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.74 | 53.5% | 54.4% | 1.84 | +0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 46.5% | 45.6% | 2.19 | -0.9 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.38 | 40.2% | 39.1% | 2.56 | -1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.42 | 66.8% | 65.6% | 1.52 | -1.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.47 | 64.5% | 63.1% | 1.58 | -1.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.30 | 21.4% | 19.1% | 5.24 | -2.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.04 | 31.4% | 28.7% | 3.48 | -2.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Leningradets
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nizhny Novgorod · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tekstilshchik · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Sokol Saratov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ska-khabarovsk · 3-2 (W)
Ska-khabarovsk
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shinnik Yaroslavl · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Sochi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tula · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Znamya Noginsk · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Leningradets · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 40 |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 32 |
| 3 | Torpedo Moskva | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Ural | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Spartak Kostroma | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 6 | Veles | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | FC UFA | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 10 | Rotor Volgograd | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Arsenal Tula | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 19 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 15 |
| 13 | Enisey | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Leningradets | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | FK Neftekhimik | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Ska-khabarovsk | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -10 | 10 |
| 18 | Tekstilshchik | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -14 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.