CTS La Gaillette · Analysis updated 13:00 UTC
Lens U19 vs Como U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Lens U19 and 1.18 for Como U19, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Lens U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lens U19 win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lens U19 home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Como U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lens U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Lens U19 and 1.18 for Como U19, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
Lens U19
- 2024-02-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2023-12-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2023-11-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2023-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs PSV U19 · 2-1 (W)
Como U19
- 2026-05-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Empoli U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Entella U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Modena U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brescia U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezia U19 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lens U19 win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.