· Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Lens vs Charleroi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for Lens and 1.30 for Charleroi, a combined total of 4.23. That distribution gives Lens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lens win
70.5% probability
Expected goals
2.93 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lens home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Charleroi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lens to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 15% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.93 goals for Lens and 1.30 for Charleroi, a combined 4.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.1%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–06.3%
- 3–06.1%
- 4–15.8%
Recent form
Lens
- 2026-10-13T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Standard Liege · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 2-2 (D)
Charleroi
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Cercle Brugge · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Zulte Waregem · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Union St. Gilloise · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Kortrijk · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:15:00.000Z · H vs KV Mechelen · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lens win, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.