Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia · Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
Lens vs Famalicao Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Lens and 0.74 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Lens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lens win
58.6% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lens home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Famalicao away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lens to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 25% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Lens and 0.74 for Famalicao, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.2%
Recent form
Lens
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Standard Liege · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Praha · 3-2 (W)
Famalicao
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z · Lens 0-0 Famalicao (Como Cup)
Como Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lens | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 6 | Al Ula | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lens win, at 58.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.