Stade Bollaert-Delelis · Referee Jeremy Stinat, France · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Lens vs Lyon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Lens and 1.22 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Lens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lens home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lyon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.70 (model 47.3% vs market 34.8%, edge +12.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.70 | 34.8% | 47.3% | 2.11 | +12.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.7% | 66.9% | 1.49 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 40.1% | 40.6% | 2.46 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.3% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.4% | 26.3% | 3.80 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.75 | 33.5% | 33.1% | 3.02 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 61.0% | 59.4% | 1.68 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 65.2% | 52.7% | 1.90 | -12.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lens
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Standard Liege · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Praha · 3-2 (W)
Lyon
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Auxerre · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · Lens 4-0 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2026-03-05T20:10:00.000Z · Lens 2-2 Lyon (Coupe de France)
- 2025-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · Lens 0-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2025-05-04T15:15:00.000Z · Lens 2-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2024-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · Lens 0-0 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2024-03-03T19:45:00.000Z · Lens 3-0 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2023-12-02T16:00:00.000Z · Lens 3-2 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2023-02-12T19:45:00.000Z · Lens 1-2 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2022-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · Lens 1-0 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2022-02-19T16:00:00.000Z · Lens 1-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.