· Analysis updated 15:48 UTC
Lens vs Sunderland Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Lens and 3.15 for Sunderland, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Sunderland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sunderland win
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 3.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lens home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sunderland away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sunderland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 21% / 16% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Lens and 3.15 for Sunderland, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.5%
- 1–26.2%
- 2–36.0%
- 2–25.7%
- 1–45.1%
Recent form
Lens
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Standard Liege · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Praha · 3-2 (W)
Sunderland
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sunderland win, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.