Degouve-Brabant Stadium · Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
Lens W vs Lyon W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Lens W and 4.34 for Lyon W, a combined total of 5.53. That distribution gives Lyon W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lyon W win
87.3% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 4.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lens W home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lyon W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 87%, against 5% / 8% / 87% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Lens W and 4.34 for Lyon W, a combined 5.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 88% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
13%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–47.0%
- 1–36.4%
- 1–56.1%
- 0–45.9%
- 0–35.4%
Recent form
Lens W
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Marseille W · 1-2 (L)
Lyon W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Feminine Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 12 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Paris FC W | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Marseille W | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Le Havre W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 6 | Montpellier W | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| 7 | Strasbourg W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 8 | FC Fleury 91 W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 9 | Saint-Malo W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Nantes W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 11 | Lens W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 12 | Toulouse W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lyon W win, at 87.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.