Degouve-Brabant Stadium · Referee R. Fournier · Analysis updated 07:36 UTC
Lens W vs Marseille W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Lens W and 1.80 for Marseille W, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Marseille W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marseille W win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lens W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marseille W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marseille W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 28% / 23% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Lens W and 1.80 for Marseille W, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.2%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–16.8%
Recent form
Lens W
- 2026-05-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC W · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-04-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Marseille W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint-Étienne W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dijon W · 0-1 (L)
Marseille W
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg W · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Montpellier W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lens W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dijon W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Feminine Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 12 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Paris FC W | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Marseille W | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Le Havre W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 6 | Montpellier W | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| 7 | Strasbourg W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 8 | FC Fleury 91 W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 9 | Saint-Malo W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Nantes W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 11 | Lens W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 12 | Toulouse W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marseille W win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.