Leobendorf vs Mattersburg SV 2020 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Leobendorf and 1.15 for Mattersburg SV 2020, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Mattersburg SV 2020 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Leobendorf home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mattersburg SV 2020 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mattersburg SV 2020 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 33% / 29% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Leobendorf and 1.15 for Mattersburg SV 2020, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Leobendorf win33%

Draw29%

Mattersburg SV 2020 win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–113.4%
0–112.7%
1–011.6%
0–011.1%
1–27.7%

Recent form

Leobendorf

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fach-Donaufeld · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Scheiblingkirchen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Wiener Viktoria · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wiener SC · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mattersburg SV 2020 · 2-1 (W)

Mattersburg SV 2020

2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Krems / Rehberg · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Donau · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Leobendorf · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Wienerberg · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fach-Donaufeld · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Ost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	13	9	1	3	21	28
2	Wiener SC	13	8	2	3	16	26
3	Oberwart	13	8	2	3	11	26
4	Traiskirchen	13	7	3	3	5	24
5	Krems / Rehberg	13	7	2	4	5	23
6	Wiener Viktoria	13	6	2	5	3	20
7	Fach-Donaufeld	13	6	2	5	0	20
8	Scheiblingkirchen	13	5	4	4	-6	19
9	Parndorf	13	5	3	5	5	18
10	Leobendorf	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Mattersburg SV 2020	13	5	1	7	-5	16
12	Donau	13	3	6	4	3	15
13	Gloggnitz	13	3	5	5	-7	14
14	Favoritner AC	13	4	1	8	-9	13
15	SV Horn	13	3	2	8	-4	11
16	Wienerberg	13	0	1	12	-40	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.