Leobendorf vs Oberwart Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Leobendorf and 1.59 for Oberwart, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Oberwart the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.59

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Leobendorf home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oberwart away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oberwart to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 33% / 24% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Leobendorf and 1.59 for Oberwart, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Leobendorf win33%

Draw24%

Oberwart win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.4%
1–29.0%
0–18.4%
2–17.7%
1–07.2%

Recent form

Leobendorf

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fach-Donaufeld · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Scheiblingkirchen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Wiener Viktoria · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wiener SC · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mattersburg SV 2020 · 2-1 (W)

Oberwart

2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Parndorf · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Krems / Rehberg · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Donau · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Leobendorf · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Ost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	11	8	1	2	20	25
2	Oberwart	11	7	1	3	8	22
3	Wiener SC	11	6	2	3	13	20
4	Scheiblingkirchen	11	5	4	2	0	19
5	Traiskirchen	11	5	3	3	3	18
6	Wiener Viktoria	11	5	2	4	5	17
7	Krems / Rehberg	11	5	2	4	3	17
8	Fach-Donaufeld	11	5	2	4	0	17
9	Parndorf	11	4	3	4	1	15
10	Leobendorf	11	4	2	5	-1	14
11	Mattersburg SV 2020	11	4	1	6	-5	13
12	Favoritner AC	11	4	1	6	-5	13
13	Donau	11	2	6	3	-3	12
14	Gloggnitz	11	3	3	5	-7	12
15	SV Horn	11	3	2	6	-2	11
16	Wienerberg	11	0	1	10	-30	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.