Estadio Leon · Referee Yonatan Peinado Aguirre, Mexico · Analysis updated 19:26 UTC
Leon vs FC Juarez Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Leon and 0.79 for FC Juarez, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Leon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Leon win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leon home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Juarez away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 25% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Leon and 0.79 for FC Juarez, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 56.3% vs market 43.0%, edge +13.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.0% | 56.3% | 1.78 | +13.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 41.7% | 43.1% | 2.32 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 56.7% | 56.9% | 1.76 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 81.5% | 81.7% | 1.22 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 24.7% | 24.8% | 4.03 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.80 | 18.6% | 18.3% | 5.46 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.8% | 75.2% | 1.33 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.0% | 43.7% | 2.29 | -13.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Leon
- 2026-10-21T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T02:10:00.000Z · A vs Club Queretaro · 1-1 (D)
FC Juarez
- 2026-10-24T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Necaxa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -24 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leon win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.