Estadio León · Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Leon and 1.35 for Guadalajara Chivas, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Guadalajara Chivas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leon home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guadalajara Chivas away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guadalajara Chivas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 35% / 26% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Leon and 1.35 for Guadalajara Chivas, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Leon
- 2026-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T02:10:00.000Z · A vs Club Queretaro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico San Luis · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T03:05:00.000Z · A vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 1-0 (W)
Guadalajara Chivas
- 2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:07:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T03:25:00.000Z · A vs Club America · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T01:07:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico San Luis · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.