· Referee L. A. Garcia Olvera · Analysis updated 05:58 UTC
León W vs Querétaro W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.66 expected goals for León W and 0.94 for Querétaro W, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives León W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
León W win
73.9% probability
Expected goals
2.66 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
León W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Querétaro W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates León W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.66 goals for León W and 0.94 for Querétaro W, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–08.6%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–07.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.1% | 56.6% | 1.77 | +1.5 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.85 | 50.7% | 51.7% | 1.93 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.75 | 25.2% | 26.2% | 3.82 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 6.25 | 15.0% | 15.3% | 6.54 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 8.70 | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.17 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 3.10 | 30.3% | 30.4% | 3.29 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.35 | 69.7% | 69.6% | 1.44 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.11 | 85.0% | 84.8% | 1.18 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.26 | 74.3% | 73.9% | 1.35 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.05 | 89.8% | 89.2% | 1.12 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.90 | 49.3% | 48.3% | 2.07 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.05 | 44.9% | 43.4% | 2.30 | -1.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
León W
- 2026-10-23T01:06:00.000Z · A vs Atlas W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-20T01:06:00.000Z · H vs Atlante W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T23:00:00.000Z · H vs América W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-21T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Juárez W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Pachuca W · 1-0 (W)
Querétaro W
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético San Luis W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:06:00.000Z · H vs Atlas W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Atlante W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla W · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX Femenil table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey W | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 30 |
| 2 | América W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 28 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 28 |
| 4 | Guadalajara W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 5 | Juárez W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Toluca W | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis W | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM W | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | León W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 16 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul W | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 12 | Atlas W | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | Tijuana W | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Pachuca W | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Atlante W | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Querétaro W | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -14 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla W | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 4 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -42 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is León W win, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.