· Referee F. Portillo · Analysis updated 17:57 UTC
León W vs Tigres UANL W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for León W and 2.40 for Tigres UANL W, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Tigres UANL W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tigres UANL W win
62.0% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 2.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
León W home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tigres UANL W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–17.8%
- 1–37.4%
- 0–27.2%
- 0–16.0%
Recent form
León W
- 2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Querétaro W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-11T01:06:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Pumas UNAM W · 5-2 (W)
Tigres UANL W
- 2026-09-28T00:06:00.000Z · H vs Atlético San Luis W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca W · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs América W · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-07T00:06:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T01:06:00.000Z · H vs Pachuca W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-11T01:06:00.000Z · León W 1-2 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2026-01-17T03:06:00.000Z · León W 1-1 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · León W 0-9 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-01-19T23:00:00.000Z · León W 2-2 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-09-02T01:06:00.000Z · León W 0-1 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-01-20T23:00:00.000Z · León W 2-7 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2023-09-12T01:00:00.000Z · León W 1-3 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2023-03-06T01:00:00.000Z · León W 1-4 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2022-10-17T20:45:00.000Z · León W 2-0 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2022-03-22T01:00:00.000Z · León W 0-6 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
Liga MX Femenil table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey W | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 30 |
| 2 | América W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 28 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 28 |
| 4 | Guadalajara W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 5 | Juárez W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Toluca W | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis W | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 16 |
| 10 | León W | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul W | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 12 | Atlas W | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 | Pachuca W | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Tijuana W | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Atlante W | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Querétaro W | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -14 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla W | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 4 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -42 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tigres UANL W win, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.