· Referee C. Sanchez · Analysis updated 21:41 UTC
León W vs Toluca W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for León W and 2.05 for Toluca W, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Toluca W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Toluca W win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
León W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Toluca W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toluca W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 31% / 21% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for León W and 2.05 for Toluca W, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.9%
- 1–35.9%
Recent form
León W
- 2026-10-23T01:06:00.000Z · A vs Atlas W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-20T01:06:00.000Z · H vs Atlante W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T23:00:00.000Z · H vs América W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-21T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Juárez W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Pachuca W · 1-0 (W)
Toluca W
- 2026-10-25T00:10:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-05T01:06:00.000Z · A vs Pachuca W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T01:06:00.000Z · A vs Necaxa W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL W · 2-7 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX Femenil table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América W | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 31 |
| 2 | Monterrey W | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 30 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 28 |
| 4 | Juárez W | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Toluca W | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 6 | Guadalajara W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis W | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM W | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | León W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 16 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul W | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 12 | Pachuca W | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 13 | Atlas W | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Tijuana W | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 15 | Atlante W | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Querétaro W | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -15 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla W | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 4 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -47 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Toluca W win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.