Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra · Referee Eloy Vicente Beltran Moreira, Ecuador · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Leones del Norte vs Barcelona SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Leones del Norte and 0.60 for Barcelona SC, a combined total of 1.63. That distribution gives Leones del Norte the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Leones del Norte win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leones del Norte home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Barcelona SC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leones del Norte to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 34% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Leones del Norte and 0.60 for Barcelona SC, a combined 1.63 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.2%
- 0–019.7%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–111.8%
- 2–010.3%
Recent form
Leones del Norte
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Guayaquil City FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tecnico Universitario · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Mushuc Runa SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Orense SC · 1-0 (W)
Barcelona SC
- 2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfin SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Aucas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente del Valle · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Manta FC · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -3 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -12 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -11 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -25 | 21 |
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 31 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 41 | 77 |
| 2 | Macara | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 57 |
| 3 | LDU de Quito | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 52 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 51 |
| 5 | Aucas | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 50 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 47 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | -2 | 43 |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | Emelec | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -11 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | -4 | 39 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -12 | 38 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | -12 | 34 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 32 | 10 | 3 | 19 | -15 | 33 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | -11 | 32 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 32 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -23 | 27 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leones del Norte win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.