Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra · Referee Jennifer Mishel Canchingre Preciado, Ecuador · Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Leones del Norte and 1.68 for Independiente del Valle, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Independiente del Valle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Independiente del Valle win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leones del Norte home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Independiente del Valle away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente del Valle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 19% / 24% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Leones del Norte and 1.68 for Independiente del Valle, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–211.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 5.30 | 17.7% | 19.3% | 5.18 | +1.6 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.28 | 73.2% | 74.7% | 1.34 | +1.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.20 | 42.4% | 43.4% | 2.30 | +1.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.77 | 51.8% | 52.7% | 1.90 | +0.9 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 1.65 | 56.7% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.15 | 81.1% | 80.6% | 1.24 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.5% | 75.8% | 1.32 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.90 | 48.2% | 47.3% | 2.11 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.65 | 25.6% | 24.1% | 4.15 | -1.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.50 | 26.8% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -1.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Leones del Norte
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Guayaquil City FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tecnico Universitario · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Mushuc Runa SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Orense SC · 1-0 (W)
Independiente del Valle
- 2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -3 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -12 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -11 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -25 | 21 |
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 31 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 41 | 77 |
| 2 | Macara | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 23 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 47 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -3 | 40 |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | Emelec | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | -4 | 39 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -12 | 37 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 31 | 10 | 3 | 18 | -14 | 33 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | -11 | 32 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 31 | 6 | 6 | 19 | -24 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Independiente del Valle win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.