Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui · Analysis updated 08:53 UTC
Leones FC vs Quindio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Leones FC and 1.13 for Quindio, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Quindio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.3% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leones FC home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Quindio away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Quindio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 27% / 31% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Leones FC and 1.13 for Quindio, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.0%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–29.0%
Recent form
Leones FC
- 2026-10-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Santander · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Patriotas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Magdalena · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Barranquilla · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Internacional Palmira · 0-1 (L)
Quindio
- 2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Cartagena · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barranquilla · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Orsomarso · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Bogota FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Cundinamarca · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.