Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for Leones Negros UDG and 0.94 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Leones Negros UDG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Leones Negros UDG win

70.7% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.46 – 0.94

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Leones Negros UDG home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leones Negros UDG to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 17% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for Leones Negros UDG and 0.94 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Leones Negros UDG win71%

Draw17%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

2–010.1%
2–19.5%
3–08.3%
1–08.2%
3–17.8%

Recent form

Leones Negros UDG

2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Zacatecas · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Venados FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorados · 6-3 (W)
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo · 2-1 (W)

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Monarcas · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tapatío · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T01:00:00.000Z · A vs CDS Tampico Madero · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tepatitlán · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-06T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Tlaxcala · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga de Expansión MX table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	14	8	3	3	15	27
2	Leones Negros UDG	14	8	3	3	12	27
3	Monarcas	14	8	2	4	9	26
4	Piratas	14	7	3	4	12	24
5	Venados FC	14	7	3	4	6	24
6	Cancún	14	6	4	4	8	22
7	Durango	14	6	3	5	4	21
8	Tlaxcala	14	5	4	5	0	19
9	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	14	6	1	7	-11	19
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	14	5	3	6	1	18
11	Tapatío	14	5	2	7	-3	17
12	Correcaminos Uat	14	4	4	6	-3	16
13	Dorados	14	4	4	6	-6	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	14	4	3	7	-8	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	3	5	6	-5	14
16	Tepatitlán	14	2	1	11	-31	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Leones Negros UDG win, at 70.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.