Estadio Jalisco · Referee H. Solorio Arreola · Analysis updated 04:24 UTC
Leones Negros UDG vs Correcaminos Uat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Leones Negros UDG and 2.00 for Correcaminos Uat, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Leones Negros UDG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Leones Negros UDG win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leones Negros UDG home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Correcaminos Uat away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–15.8%
- 3–25.8%
- 1–15.6%
Recent form
Leones Negros UDG
- 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Zacatecas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Venados FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorados · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo · 2-1 (W)
Correcaminos Uat
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · H vs CDS Tampico Madero · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T03:00:00.000Z · A vs CA La Paz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Cancún · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Piratas · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T01:00:00.000Z · Leones Negros UDG 1-3 Correcaminos Uat (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2026-01-25T18:00:00.000Z · Leones Negros UDG 0-0 Correcaminos Uat (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2025-08-16T01:00:00.000Z · Leones Negros UDG 2-1 Correcaminos Uat (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2025-02-14T01:00:00.000Z · Leones Negros UDG 3-1 Correcaminos Uat (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2024-08-31T03:00:00.000Z · Leones Negros UDG 3-1 Correcaminos Uat (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2024-02-28T03:05:00.000Z · Leones Negros UDG 1-1 Correcaminos Uat (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2023-09-21T01:05:00.000Z · Leones Negros UDG 2-1 Correcaminos Uat (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2023-02-03T01:05:00.000Z · Leones Negros UDG 1-3 Correcaminos Uat (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2022-07-22T00:00:00.000Z · Leones Negros UDG 0-0 Correcaminos Uat (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2022-01-27T01:05:00.000Z · Leones Negros UDG 0-3 Correcaminos Uat (Liga de Expansión MX)
Liga de Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 27 |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | Piratas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 24 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Monarcas | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 6 | Cancún | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 7 | Durango | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 9 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 19 |
| 10 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 11 | Tapatío | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Correcaminos Uat | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 16 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -31 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leones Negros UDG win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.