· Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Leonfelden vs Gurten Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Leonfelden and 1.50 for Gurten, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Gurten the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leonfelden home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gurten away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gurten to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 32% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Leonfelden and 1.50 for Gurten, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Leonfelden
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kuchl · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs LASK Juniors · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Grödig · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wohnbau Dietach · 3-2 (W)
Gurten
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Seekirchen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV St. Johann · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Wallern / Marienkirchen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Pinzgau Saalfelden · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kuchl · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · Leonfelden 2-5 Gurten (Regionalliga - North)
Regionalliga - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wals-Grünau | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 23 |
| 2 | Wallern / Marienkirchen | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 22 |
| 3 | LASK Juniors | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Gurten | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 5 | Bad Schallerbach | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
| 6 | Kuchl | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Grödig | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | SK Vorwarts Steyr | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | TSV St. Johann | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Seekirchen | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 | Ried II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 11 |
| 12 | Leonfelden | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Wohnbau Dietach | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -18 | 8 |
| 14 | UFC Hallein | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -14 | 6 |
| 15 | Pinzgau Saalfelden | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.