Leotar vs Velež Nevesinje Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 4.01 expected goals for Leotar and 0.48 for Velež Nevesinje, a combined total of 4.49. That distribution gives Leotar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 94%, with the draw at 5%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 94% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Leotar win

93.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

4.01 – 0.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Leotar home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Velež Nevesinje away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leotar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 94%, against 94% / 5% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.01 goals for Leotar and 0.48 for Velež Nevesinje, a combined 4.49 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Leotar win94%

Draw5%

Velež Nevesinje win2%

Double chance 1X

98%

Double chance 12

95%

Double chance X2

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals63%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

4–012.1%
3–012.1%
5–09.7%
2–09.1%
6–06.5%

Recent form

Leotar

2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Laktaši · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Romanija Pale · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Majevica Lopare · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Potkozarje · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Famos Vojkovići · 3-0 (W)

Velež Nevesinje

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Laktaši · 1-8 (L)
2026-10-21T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Leotar · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Romanija Pale · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Majevica Lopare · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Potkozarje · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1st League - RS table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Leotar	13	10	3	0	26	33
2	Laktaši	13	10	1	2	29	31
3	Drina Zvornik	13	6	3	4	14	21
4	Potkozarje	13	6	2	5	1	20
5	FK Majevica Lopare	12	5	4	3	6	19
6	Kozara Gradiška	13	5	4	4	1	19
7	Rudar Prijedor	13	5	3	5	-3	18
8	FK Romanija Pale	13	6	0	7	-6	18
9	Famos Vojkovići	13	5	2	6	-5	17
10	Slavija	13	3	6	4	-5	15
11	Sutjeska Foča	12	3	2	7	-9	11
12	Velež Nevesinje	13	3	2	8	-23	11
13	Omarska	13	2	4	7	-11	10
14	Zvijezda 09	13	2	2	9	-15	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Leotar win, at 93.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.

A 94% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.