Sportplatz Waldeck · Analysis updated 12:42 UTC
Lerchenfeld vs Binningen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Lerchenfeld and 1.70 for Binningen, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Binningen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Binningen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Binningen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Lerchenfeld and 1.70 for Binningen, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Lerchenfeld
Binningen
- 2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bosporus · 4-3 (W)
- 2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajoie-Monterri · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-05-31T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Muri-Gümligen · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dornach · 3-3 (D)
- 2025-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lerchenfeld · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Liga Interregional - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Old Boys | 30 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 47 | 66 |
| 2 | Bosporus | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 59 |
| 3 | Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy II | 30 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 58 |
| 4 | Düdingen | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 53 |
| 5 | Bosna Neuchâtel | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 51 |
| 6 | Dornach | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 50 |
| 7 | Ajoie-Monterri | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | -4 | 40 |
| 8 | Pratteln | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 38 |
| 9 | Ueberstorf | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | -12 | 37 |
| 10 | Allschwil | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | -15 | 37 |
| 11 | Muri-Gümligen | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 35 |
| 12 | Lyss | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | -18 | 32 |
| 13 | Binningen | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -17 | 32 |
| 14 | Lerchenfeld | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | -24 | 31 |
| 15 | Lommiswil | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -18 | 31 |
| 16 | Tavannes / Tramelan | 30 | 6 | 2 | 22 | -28 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.