Lerchenfeld vs Muri-Gümligen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Lerchenfeld and 1.90 for Muri-Gümligen, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Muri-Gümligen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Muri-Gümligen win

54.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Muri-Gümligen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muri-Gümligen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 23% / 22% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Lerchenfeld and 1.90 for Muri-Gümligen, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Lerchenfeld win23%

Draw22%

Muri-Gümligen win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.3%
1–29.8%
0–19.0%
0–28.5%
1–36.2%

Recent form

Lerchenfeld

Muri-Gümligen

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Langenthal · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buochs · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper II · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Wohlen · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zug · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Liga Interregional - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Old Boys	30	21	3	6	47	66
2	Bosporus	30	18	5	7	32	59
3	Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy II	30	18	4	8	30	58
4	Düdingen	30	15	8	7	12	53
5	Bosna Neuchâtel	30	15	6	9	17	51
6	Dornach	30	15	5	10	15	50
7	Ajoie-Monterri	30	11	7	12	-4	40
8	Pratteln	30	11	5	14	-9	38
9	Ueberstorf	30	9	10	11	-12	37
10	Allschwil	30	10	7	13	-15	37
11	Muri-Gümligen	30	9	8	13	-8	35
12	Lyss	30	9	5	16	-18	32
13	Binningen	30	8	8	14	-17	32
14	Lerchenfeld	30	8	7	15	-24	31
15	Lommiswil	30	7	10	13	-18	31
16	Tavannes / Tramelan	30	6	2	22	-28	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Muri-Gümligen win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.