Sisian Stadium · Analysis updated 21:53 UTC
Lernayin Artsakh vs Ararat-Armenia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.01 expected goals for Lernayin Artsakh and 1.36 for Ararat-Armenia II, a combined total of 4.37. That distribution gives Lernayin Artsakh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lernayin Artsakh win
70.5% probability
Expected goals
3.01 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lernayin Artsakh home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ararat-Armenia II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lernayin Artsakh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 15% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.01 goals for Lernayin Artsakh and 1.36 for Ararat-Armenia II, a combined 4.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 4–15.9%
- 3–05.7%
- 2–05.7%
Recent form
Lernayin Artsakh
- 2026-10-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Shirak II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Ararat II · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Araks Ararat · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Andranik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sardarapat 2 · 4-2 (W)
Ararat-Armenia II
- 2026-10-13T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Araks Ararat · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Andranik · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Sardarapat 2 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bentonit Ijevan · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Banants II · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia Yerevan | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Andranik | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 22 |
| 3 | BKMA II | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Bentonit Ijevan | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Araks Ararat | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Lernayin Artsakh | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Mika | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Pyunik II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Shirak II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Ararat II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Sardarapat 2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 12 | Banants II | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | Noah II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -15 | 6 |
| 14 | Ararat-Armenia II | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lernayin Artsakh win, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.