· Analysis updated 06:43 UTC
Lernayin Artsakh vs Shirak Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Lernayin Artsakh and 1.26 for Shirak, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Lernayin Artsakh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lernayin Artsakh win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lernayin Artsakh home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shirak away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lernayin Artsakh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 20% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Lernayin Artsakh and 1.26 for Shirak, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–07.0%
- 3–17.0%
Recent form
Lernayin Artsakh
- 2026-10-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Shirak II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Ararat II · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Araks Ararat · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Andranik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sardarapat 2 · 4-2 (W)
Shirak
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Alashkert · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Syunik · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyunik Yerevan · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andranik | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Lernayin Artsakh | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Araks Ararat | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Bentonit Ijevan | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Mika | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Syunik | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Cilicia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 9 | Echmiadzin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 10 | Ecoville | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lernayin Artsakh win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.