Olympia Park · Analysis updated 02:55 UTC
Lerumo Lions vs Baroka FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Lerumo Lions and 0.85 for Baroka FC, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Lerumo Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lerumo Lions win
51.2% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lerumo Lions home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Baroka FC away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lerumo Lions to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 27% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Lerumo Lions and 0.85 for Baroka FC, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–010.5%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Lerumo Lions
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Leicesterfield · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Highbury · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hope FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs The Bees · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Casric Stars · 0-1 (L)
Baroka FC
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Upington City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cape Town City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Casric Stars · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kruger United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gomora United FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · Lerumo Lions 2-0 Baroka FC (1st Division)
- 2025-11-09T13:30:00.000Z · Lerumo Lions 2-1 Baroka FC (1st Division)
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magesi | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Cape Town City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Casric Stars | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Hungry Lions | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Lerumo Lions | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Upington City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Hope FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Highbury | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Gomora United FC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | NWU FC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Leicesterfield | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Midlands Wanderers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | University of Pretoria | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Orbit College | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | The Bees | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Venda FC | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lerumo Lions win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.