Stade Massabielle · Analysis updated 16:48 UTC
Les Herbiers vs Avranches Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Les Herbiers and 1.17 for Avranches, a combined total of 1.92. That distribution gives Avranches the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Avranches win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Les Herbiers home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Avranches away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.2%
- 0–014.7%
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–210.1%
Recent form
Les Herbiers
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayonne · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tarbes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Chauray · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Avranches · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinan Léhon · 0-2 (L)
Avranches
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint-Colomban Locminé · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinan Léhon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Les Herbiers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Angoulême · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Châteaubriant · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 1-2 Avranches (National 2 - Group B)
- 2026-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 3-3 Avranches (National 2 - Group A)
- 2026-01-30T18:30:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 2-3 Avranches (National 2 - Group A)
- 2025-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 2-0 Avranches (National 2 - Group B)
- 2024-08-16T17:30:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 1-1 Avranches (National 2 - Group B)
- 2023-11-17T18:00:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 2-1 Avranches (Coupe de France)
- 2018-04-12T17:00:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 1-1 Avranches (Ligue 3)
- 2017-11-24T19:00:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 2-2 Avranches (Ligue 3)
- 2017-03-31T18:00:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 1-1 Avranches (Ligue 3)
- 2016-10-28T18:00:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 2-2 Avranches (Ligue 3)
National 2 - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angoulême | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Bayonne | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Granville | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Avranches | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 5 | Dinan Léhon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Saint-Malo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | Tarbes | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Lorient II | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | Le Poiré sur Vie | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Briochin | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Les Herbiers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Saint-Colomban Locminé | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Saumur | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Pontivy GSI | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Châteaubriant | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Chauray | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Avranches win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.