Stade Massabielle · Analysis updated 18:42 UTC
Les Herbiers vs Granville Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Les Herbiers and 0.93 for Granville, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Les Herbiers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Les Herbiers win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Les Herbiers home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Granville away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Les Herbiers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Les Herbiers and 0.93 for Granville, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Les Herbiers
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayonne · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tarbes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Chauray · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Avranches · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinan Léhon · 0-2 (L)
Granville
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Malo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Briochin · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pontivy GSI · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayonne · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Maur Lusitanos | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 2 | Chambly Thelle FC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Creteil | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Racing Colombes 92 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Furiani-Agliani | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Feignies-Aulnoye | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Biesheim | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Dieppe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Le Pays du Valois | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Bastia-Borgo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Haguenau | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Montlouis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Epinal | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Colmar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 15 | St-Pryvé St-Hilaire | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Chantilly | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Les Herbiers win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.