Stade Massabielle · Analysis updated 15:02 UTC
Les Herbiers vs Pontivy GSI Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Les Herbiers and 1.20 for Pontivy GSI, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Les Herbiers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Les Herbiers home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Les Herbiers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 28% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Les Herbiers and 1.20 for Pontivy GSI, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Les Herbiers
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayonne · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tarbes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Chauray · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Avranches · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinan Léhon · 0-2 (L)
Pontivy GSI
Head-to-head
- 2015-01-31T17:30:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 0-1 Pontivy GSI (National 2 - Group D)
- 2014-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 1-0 Pontivy GSI (National 2 - Group D)
- 2014-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 4-1 Pontivy GSI (National 2 - Group D)
- 2014-01-11T17:30:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 0-0 Pontivy GSI (National 2 - Group D)
- 2013-05-11T16:30:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 3-0 Pontivy GSI (National 2 - Group D)
- 2013-01-12T17:00:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 0-1 Pontivy GSI (National 2 - Group D)
- 2012-03-03T17:00:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 1-1 Pontivy GSI (National 2 - Group D)
- 2011-09-10T16:30:00.000Z · Les Herbiers 1-1 Pontivy GSI (National 2 - Group D)
National 2 - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angoulême | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Bayonne | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Avranches | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Lorient II | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Granville | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinan Léhon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Saint-Malo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Stade Briochin | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Le Poiré sur Vie | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Tarbes | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Colomban Locminé | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Les Herbiers | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Saumur | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Pontivy GSI | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Châteaubriant | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Chauray | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.