Les Sables vs Chauvigny Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Les Sables and 1.20 for Chauvigny, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Les Sables the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Les Sables win

53.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.89 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Les Sables home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chauvigny away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Les Sables to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Les Sables and 1.20 for Chauvigny, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Les Sables win54%

Draw22%

Chauvigny win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–19.8%
1–08.6%
2–08.1%
1–26.2%

Recent form

Les Sables

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs St-Philbert Gd Lieu · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs USSA Vertou · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Challans · 2-3 (L)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chauvigny · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panazol · 1-4 (L)

Chauvigny

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vendée Fontenay · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Châtellerault · 5-2 (W)
2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs St-Philbert Gd Lieu · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Les Sables · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Challans · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National 3 - Group B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Le Poiré sur Vie	26	17	6	3	21	57
2	UF Touraine	26	17	5	4	31	56
3	Nantes II	26	15	6	5	17	51
4	Challans	26	12	10	4	26	46
5	La Châtaigneraie	26	10	9	7	-3	39
6	Vendée Fontenay	26	9	5	12	-8	32
7	Les Sables	26	9	5	12	-1	32
8	Panazol	26	11	3	12	1	32
9	Châteauroux II	26	9	4	13	-3	31
10	St-Philbert Gd Lieu	26	8	6	12	-12	30
11	USSA Vertou	26	7	7	12	-6	28
12	Chauvigny	26	4	12	10	-12	24
13	Angers SCO II	26	4	8	14	-14	20
14	Châtellerault	26	4	6	16	-37	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Les Sables win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.