Levadia U19 vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Levadia U19 and 2.07 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21, a combined total of 4.68. That distribution gives Levadia U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Levadia U19 win

50.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.60 – 2.07

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Levadia U19 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Levadia U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 19% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for Levadia U19 and 2.07 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21, a combined 4.68 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Levadia U19 win50%

Draw19%

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals69%

Both teams to score81%

Correct score

2–26.8%
2–16.5%
3–25.9%
3–15.7%
1–25.2%

Recent form

Levadia U19

2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tallinna Kalev II · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-10T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Kalev · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Legion · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Luunja · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tulevik · 3-5 (L)

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tartu Kalev · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Johvi Phoenix · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tallinna Kalev II · 7-0 (W)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Legion · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JK Tabasalu · 6-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Esiliiga B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Narva U21	34	23	4	7	39	73
2	Levadia U19	33	21	2	10	30	65
3	Phoenix	34	18	3	13	0	57
4	Luunja	33	17	5	11	25	56
5	Tulevik	34	16	5	13	18	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	15	5	13	33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	34	16	2	16	13	50
8	JK Tabasalu	34	11	4	19	-38	37
9	Tallinna Kalev II	33	8	6	19	-17	30
10	Legion	34	3	4	27	-103	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Levadia U19 win, at 50.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.