Levadia Stadium · Referee Stavros Tsimenteridis, Greece · Analysis updated 14:15 UTC
Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.54 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.91 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Olympiakos Piraeus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Olympiakos Piraeus win
70.3% probability
Expected goals
0.54 – 1.91
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Levadiakos home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Olympiakos Piraeus away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.5%
- 0–215.7%
- 0–310.0%
- 1–18.9%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.62 (model 64.5% vs market 57.0%, edge +7.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.62 | 57.0% | 64.5% | 1.55 | +7.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.06 | 89.7% | 90.4% | 1.11 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.60 | 19.9% | 20.1% | 4.98 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 9.50 | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.42 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 3.20 | 29.7% | 29.7% | 3.37 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 1.30 | 70.4% | 70.3% | 1.42 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 80.6% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.15 | 43.0% | 35.5% | 2.82 | -7.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Levadiakos
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kifisia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Panetolikos · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Panathinaikos · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PAOK · 0-4 (L)
Olympiakos Piraeus
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Panathinaikos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Levadiakos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Jagiellonia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs OFI · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Volos NFC · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · Levadiakos 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
- 2026-02-14T17:30:00.000Z · Levadiakos 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
- 2025-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · Levadiakos 2-3 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
- 2025-02-02T14:30:00.000Z · Levadiakos 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
- 2024-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · Levadiakos 2-2 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
- 2023-03-05T14:00:00.000Z · Levadiakos 0-6 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
- 2022-11-09T18:00:00.000Z · Levadiakos 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
- 2021-12-22T17:00:00.000Z · Levadiakos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus (Cup)
- 2021-12-01T15:00:00.000Z · Levadiakos 3-2 Olympiakos Piraeus (Cup)
- 2019-01-13T15:15:00.000Z · Levadiakos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus (Super League 1)
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 14 |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | PAOK | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 6 | OFI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Iraklis 1908 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Panetolikos | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Kifisia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Kalamata | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olympiakos Piraeus win, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.