Levadias Stadium · Referee Alexandros Katsikogiannis, Greece · Analysis updated 16:55 UTC
Levadiakos vs Panetolikos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.69 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.24 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Panetolikos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Panetolikos win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
0.69 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Levadiakos home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Panetolikos away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Panetolikos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 21% / 30% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.69 goals for Levadiakos and 1.24 for Panetolikos, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.0%
- 0–014.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–211.2%
- 1–010.0%
Recent form
Levadiakos
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Volos NFC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis 1908 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kifisia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Panetolikos · 0-2 (L)
Panetolikos
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PAOK · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Levadiakos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Kalamata · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Tripolis · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | PAOK | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 14 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | Kalamata | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | OFI | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Iraklis 1908 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Panetolikos | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | Kifisia | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 2 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Panetolikos win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.