Tobb Arena Levanger · Analysis updated 10:04 UTC
Levanger vs Follo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Levanger and 1.23 for Follo, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Levanger the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Levanger win
67.7% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Levanger home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Follo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Levanger to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 17% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for Levanger and 1.23 for Follo, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–16.7%
- 3–06.4%
Recent form
Levanger
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rana · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hønefoss · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromsdalen Uil · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grorud · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trygg/Lade · 1-0 (W)
Follo
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Stjørdals-Blink · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kjelsås · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eidsvold · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Levanger · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · Levanger 5-2 Follo (2. Division - Group 2)
- 2026-06-28T13:00:00.000Z · Levanger 2-0 Follo (2. Division - Group 2)
- 2025-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · Levanger 4-1 Follo (2. Division - Group 2)
- 2025-06-14T12:00:00.000Z · Levanger 0-1 Follo (2. Division - Group 2)
2. Division - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eidsvold | 25 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 60 |
| 2 | Kjelsås | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 56 |
| 3 | Levanger | 25 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 52 |
| 4 | Hønefoss | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 49 |
| 5 | Grorud | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 46 |
| 6 | Stjørdals-Blink | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 39 |
| 7 | Tromsdalen Uil | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 38 |
| 8 | Lørenskog | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | -1 | 37 |
| 9 | Junkeren | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -9 | 31 |
| 10 | Rana | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | -9 | 30 |
| 11 | Skeid | 25 | 7 | 2 | 16 | -17 | 23 |
| 12 | Follo | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -19 | 20 |
| 13 | Ull/Kisa | 25 | 4 | 1 | 20 | -52 | 13 |
| 14 | Trygg/Lade | 25 | 2 | 4 | 19 | -35 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Levanger win, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.