Levante vs Racing Santander Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.18 expected goals for Levante and 1.90 for Racing Santander, a combined total of 5.07. That distribution gives Levante the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Levante win

63.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.18 – 1.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Levante home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Santander away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Levante win63%

Draw16%

Racing Santander win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals88%

Over 3.5 goals74%

Both teams to score81%

Correct score

3–16.3%
3–26.0%
2–16.0%
2–25.7%
4–15.0%

Recent form

Levante

2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 5-2 (W)

Racing Santander

2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-16T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 2-7 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2025-04-06T14:15:00.000Z · Levante 3-1 Racing Santander (Segunda División)
2024-10-13T14:15:00.000Z · Levante 0-1 Racing Santander (Segunda División)
2024-04-20T14:15:00.000Z · Levante 0-0 Racing Santander (Segunda División)
2023-11-20T20:00:00.000Z · Levante 2-4 Racing Santander (Segunda División)
2023-03-25T15:15:00.000Z · Levante 1-0 Racing Santander (Segunda División)
2022-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · Levante 0-1 Racing Santander (Segunda División)
2012-02-04T17:00:00.000Z · Levante 1-1 Racing Santander (La Liga)
2011-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · Levante 0-0 Racing Santander (La Liga)
2011-04-10T15:00:00.000Z · Levante 1-1 Racing Santander (La Liga)
2010-11-21T16:00:00.000Z · Levante 3-1 Racing Santander (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Levante win, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.