· Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Levante vs Villarreal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Levante and 2.10 for Villarreal, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Villarreal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.1% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Levante home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Villarreal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–16.8%
- 2–35.1%
Recent form
Levante
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 5-2 (W)
Villarreal
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-05T08:00:00.000Z · Levante 0-1 Villarreal (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z · Levante 1-5 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2026-02-18T19:00:00.000Z · Levante 0-1 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2022-08-03T17:00:00.000Z · Levante 1-3 Villarreal (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-04-02T14:15:00.000Z · Levante 2-0 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2022-01-03T18:00:00.000Z · Levante 0-5 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2021-07-29T00:00:00.000Z · Levante 0-0 Villarreal (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-04-18T19:00:00.000Z · Levante 1-5 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2021-02-03T18:00:00.000Z · Levante 1-0 Villarreal (Copa del Rey)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.