· Analysis updated 05:16 UTC
Levante vs Villarreal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Levante and 1.97 for Villarreal, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Villarreal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.
Model pick
Villarreal to Win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–17.7%
- 0–27.6%
- 1–36.3%
Why the model likes this
Levante home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villarreal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villarreal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 22% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Levante and 1.97 for Villarreal, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Levante
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Castellón · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Qadisiyah FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 1-2 (L)
Villarreal
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ula · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.