Levski Karlovo vs Neftochimic Burgas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Levski Karlovo and 2.07 for Neftochimic Burgas, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Neftochimic Burgas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Neftochimic Burgas win

59.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.11 – 2.07

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Levski Karlovo home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Neftochimic Burgas away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neftochimic Burgas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 20% / 21% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Levski Karlovo and 2.07 for Neftochimic Burgas, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Levski Karlovo win20%

Draw21%

Neftochimic Burgas win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–29.9%
1–19.6%
0–28.9%
0–18.6%
1–36.8%

Recent form

Levski Karlovo

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sayana Haskovo · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yambol 1915 · 1-5 (L)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagorets · 0-2 (L)

Neftochimic Burgas

2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportist Svoge · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zagorets · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sozopol · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	10	10	0	0	21	30
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	9	0	2	15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	8	0	1	12	24
4	Sayana Haskovo	10	6	3	1	10	21
5	Yambol 1915	10	5	2	3	14	17
6	Neftochimic Burgas	9	5	1	3	5	16
7	Gigant Saedinenie	10	5	1	4	3	16
8	Sozopol	11	5	1	5	2	16
9	Rodopa Smolyan	10	4	2	4	-2	14
10	Rozova dolina	11	2	7	2	-1	13
11	Dimitrovgrad	11	3	2	6	-2	11
12	Botev Plovdiv II	10	2	5	3	-2	11
13	Zagorets	10	3	1	6	-10	10
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	10	2	1	7	-15	7
15	Atletik Kuklen	10	2	1	7	-15	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	10	1	3	6	-12	6
17	Levski Karlovo	10	2	0	8	-14	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	1	2	7	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Neftochimic Burgas win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.