Levski Krumovgrad vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Levski Krumovgrad and 0.99 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Levski Krumovgrad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Levski Krumovgrad win

60.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 0.99

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Levski Krumovgrad home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Levski Krumovgrad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Levski Krumovgrad and 0.99 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, a combined 2.99 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Levski Krumovgrad win61%

Draw21%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–010.1%
2–010.1%
1–110.0%
2–110.0%
3–06.7%

Recent form

Levski Krumovgrad

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 6-0 (W)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zagorets · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sozopol · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Pleven · 1-2 (L)

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

2026-10-21T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Cherno More Varna · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yantra 2019 · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Arda Kardzhali · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	10	9	1	0	19	28
2	CSKA Sofia	11	8	3	0	18	27
3	Ludogorets	10	8	2	0	14	26
4	CSKA 1948	12	8	1	3	12	25
5	Botev Plovdiv	12	6	1	5	-1	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	11	5	2	4	-2	17
7	Spartak Varna	12	3	4	5	-6	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	2	5	4	0	11
9	Dunav Ruse	12	3	2	7	-6	11
10	Botev Vratsa	12	2	4	6	-11	10
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	12	1	6	5	-7	9
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	2	2	7	-8	8
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	2	2	7	-11	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	1	3	7	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Levski Krumovgrad win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.