· Analysis updated 01:30 UTC
Levski Sofia II vs Kostinbrod Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Levski Sofia II and 1.62 for Kostinbrod, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Levski Sofia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Levski Sofia II to Win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.8%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–15.7%
Why the model likes this
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Levski Sofia II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 22% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Levski Sofia II and 1.62 for Kostinbrod, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Levski Sofia II
Kostinbrod
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · Levski Sofia II 1-2 Kostinbrod (Third League - Southwest)
- 2025-11-08T09:30:00.000Z · Levski Sofia II 2-0 Kostinbrod (Third League - Southwest)
- 2024-04-20T12:00:00.000Z · Levski Sofia II 0-1 Kostinbrod (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · Levski Sofia II 1-1 Kostinbrod (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-02-11T12:00:00.000Z · Levski Sofia II 4-1 Kostinbrod (Third League - Southwest)
- 2022-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · Levski Sofia II 0-2 Kostinbrod (Third League - Southwest)
Third League - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Septemvri Simitli | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Septemvri Sofia II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Bansko | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Strumska Slava | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Belasitsa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Levski Sofia II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Botev Ihtiman | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Kostinbrod | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Slavia Sofia II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Kyustendil | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Oborishte | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | CSKA Sofia III | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Natsional Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Chavdar Etropole | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Slivnishki geroy | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Balkan Botevgrad | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.