Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov · Referee G. Piskov · Analysis updated 20:31 UTC
Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Levski Sofia and 0.96 for CSKA Sofia, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Levski Sofia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Levski Sofia win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Levski Sofia home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CSKA Sofia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Levski Sofia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 27% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Levski Sofia and 0.96 for CSKA Sofia, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.22 | 76.4% | 77.9% | 1.28 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.94 | 47.3% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +0.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.75 | 52.1% | 52.9% | 1.89 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.2% | 74.9% | 1.34 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.75 | 24.5% | 25.1% | 3.98 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.65 | 56.6% | 57.0% | 1.75 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 51.5% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.15 | 43.4% | 43.0% | 2.33 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.90 | 47.9% | 47.1% | 2.12 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.2% | 73.3% | 1.36 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.2% | 26.7% | 3.75 | -1.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.95 | 23.6% | 22.1% | 4.52 | -1.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Levski Sofia
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Botev Vratsa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · H vs CSKA 1948 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia · 2-1 (W)
CSKA Sofia
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA 1948 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Arda Kardzhali · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Levski Sofia win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.