Levski Sofia vs Kairat Almaty Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Levski Sofia and 1.02 for Kairat Almaty, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Levski Sofia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Levski Sofia or Draw

72.0% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Levski Sofia win45%

Draw27%

Kairat Almaty win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–112.8%
1–012.5%
0–19.3%
0–09.1%
2–18.8%

Why the model likes this

Kairat Almaty away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Levski Sofia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 27% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Levski Sofia and 1.02 for Kairat Almaty, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Levski Sofia

Kairat Almaty

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulytau · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Nicosia · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.