· Analysis updated 13:20 UTC
Lewes vs Cray Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Lewes and 1.53 for Cray Wanderers, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Cray Wanderers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lewes home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cray Wanderers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cray Wanderers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 36% / 24% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Lewes and 1.53 for Cray Wanderers, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Lewes
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whitehawk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheshunt · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Carshalton Athletic · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chatham Town · 2-3 (L)
Cray Wanderers
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chippenham Town · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Maldon & Tiptree · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheshunt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Maidstone Utd · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Maidstone Utd · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.