Lewes vs Dartford Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lewes and 1.04 for Dartford, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Lewes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Lewes win

47.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lewes home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dartford away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lewes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 26% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Lewes and 1.04 for Dartford, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lewes win48%

Draw26%

Dartford win27%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.4%
1–011.9%
2–19.2%
2–08.9%
0–18.3%

Recent form

Lewes

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whitehawk · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheshunt · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Carshalton Athletic · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chatham Town · 2-3 (L)

Dartford

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Three Bridges · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brentwood Town · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Whyteleafe · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wingate & Finchley · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ramsgate · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Premier - Isthmian table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Enfield Town	12	9	1	2	17	28
2	Welling United	13	9	0	4	11	27
3	Lewes	13	8	2	3	6	26
4	Chatham Town	13	8	0	5	13	24
5	Dartford	13	8	0	5	2	24
6	Ramsgate	13	7	1	5	12	22
7	Eastbourne Borough	11	7	1	3	10	22
8	Carshalton Athletic	15	7	1	7	-5	22
9	Burgess Hill Town	12	5	5	2	6	20
10	Wingate & Finchley	12	6	2	4	1	20
11	Dulwich Hamlet	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	St Albans City	9	5	2	2	5	17
13	Leatherhead	11	4	3	4	-2	15
14	Whyteleafe	14	4	3	7	-3	15
15	Cheshunt	13	3	6	4	-6	15
16	Aveley	13	4	2	7	-1	14
17	Maldon & Tiptree	15	4	2	9	-17	14
18	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	5	12
19	Brentwood Town	11	4	0	7	-1	12
20	Three Bridges	13	2	3	8	-13	9
21	Stanway Rovers	13	2	1	10	-20	7
22	Whitehawk	13	1	3	9	-20	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lewes win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.