Lewes vs Wingate & Finchley Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Lewes and 1.75 for Wingate & Finchley, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Lewes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

61.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lewes home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wingate & Finchley away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lewes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Lewes and 1.75 for Wingate & Finchley, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lewes win39%

Draw22%

Wingate & Finchley win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.2%
1–28.1%
2–18.1%
2–27.1%
0–15.3%

Recent form

Lewes

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whitehawk · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheshunt · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Carshalton Athletic · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chatham Town · 2-3 (L)

Wingate & Finchley

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stanway Rovers · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ramsgate · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dartford · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bedford Town · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedford Town · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Premier - Isthmian table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Enfield Town	12	9	1	2	17	28
2	Welling United	12	9	0	3	12	27
3	Lewes	13	8	2	3	6	26
4	Dartford	13	8	0	5	2	24
5	Ramsgate	13	7	1	5	12	22
6	Eastbourne Borough	11	7	1	3	10	22
7	Carshalton Athletic	15	7	1	7	-5	22
8	Chatham Town	12	7	0	5	12	21
9	Burgess Hill Town	12	5	5	2	6	20
10	Wingate & Finchley	12	6	2	4	1	20
11	St Albans City	9	5	2	2	5	17
12	Dulwich Hamlet	12	5	2	5	0	17
13	Leatherhead	11	4	3	4	-2	15
14	Whyteleafe	14	4	3	7	-3	15
15	Cheshunt	12	3	6	3	-3	15
16	Aveley	13	4	2	7	-1	14
17	Maldon & Tiptree	14	4	1	9	-17	13
18	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	5	12
19	Brentwood Town	11	4	0	7	-1	12
20	Three Bridges	13	2	3	8	-13	9
21	Whitehawk	13	1	3	9	-20	6
22	Stanway Rovers	12	1	1	10	-23	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.