Toyota Stadium · Referee M. Verso · Analysis updated 12:05 UTC
Lexington vs Orange County SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Lexington and 0.94 for Orange County SC, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Lexington the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lexington win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lexington home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lexington to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 24% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Lexington and 0.94 for Orange County SC, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 49%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 50.7% vs market 45.3%, edge +5.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.3% | 50.7% | 1.97 | +5.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 45.1% | 45.7% | 2.19 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 24.3% | 24.4% | 4.10 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.65 | 54.4% | 54.3% | 1.84 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 21.4% | 21.3% | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.8% | 75.6% | 1.32 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 79.0% | 78.7% | 1.27 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.7% | 49.3% | 2.03 | -5.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lexington
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs El Paso Locomotive · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterey Bay · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Orange County SC · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Oakland Roots · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting JAX · 2-3 (L)
Orange County SC
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Lexington · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Las Vegas Lights · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Sacramento Republic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Oakland Roots · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T02:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tulsa · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · Lexington 6-0 Orange County SC (USL Championship)
- 2026-04-19T02:00:00.000Z · Lexington 0-0 Orange County SC (USL Championship)
- 2025-09-12T22:00:00.000Z · Lexington 1-1 Orange County SC (USL Championship)
- 2025-03-16T02:30:00.000Z · Lexington 2-2 Orange County SC (USL Championship)
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 61 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 53 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 51 |
| 4 | Louisville City | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 47 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 45 |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 43 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -6 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | -10 | 31 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | -6 | 30 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -29 | 21 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | -46 | 14 |
| 1 | New Mexico United | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 52 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 14 | 51 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 50 |
| 4 | Lexington | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 48 |
| 5 | Colorado Springs | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 45 |
| 7 | FC Tulsa | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 43 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | -1 | 40 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -1 | 38 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | -20 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lexington win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.