Toyota Stadium · Referee A. Ndiaye · Analysis updated 12:03 UTC
Lexington vs Phoenix Rising Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Lexington and 1.33 for Phoenix Rising, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Lexington the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lexington win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lexington home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Phoenix Rising away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lexington to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Lexington and 1.33 for Phoenix Rising, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
Lexington
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs El Paso Locomotive · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterey Bay · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Orange County SC · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Oakland Roots · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting JAX · 2-3 (L)
Phoenix Rising
- 2026-10-25T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Lexington · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-18T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Orange County SC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Las Vegas Lights · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T22:00:00.000Z · A vs New Mexico United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Oakland Roots · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T23:00:00.000Z · Lexington 1-0 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
- 2025-08-09T22:00:00.000Z · Lexington 2-0 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
- 2025-07-05T02:30:00.000Z · Lexington 1-0 Phoenix Rising (USL Championship)
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 61 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 53 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 51 |
| 4 | Louisville City | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 47 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 45 |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 43 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -6 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | -10 | 31 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | -6 | 30 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -29 | 21 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | -46 | 14 |
| 1 | New Mexico United | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 52 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 14 | 51 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 50 |
| 4 | Lexington | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 48 |
| 5 | Colorado Springs | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 45 |
| 7 | FC Tulsa | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 43 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | -1 | 40 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -1 | 38 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | -20 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lexington win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.